HIV transmission in sero-discordant couples with the HIV-positive partner in Xinjiang: incidence and associated predictors
Keywords:HIV sero-discordant couples, seroconversion, influencing factors, LASSO, Cox multivariate analysis
Introduction: To control the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among sero-discordant couples, we explored the HIV seroconversion and its contributing factors.
Methodology: We recruited negative partners in HIV sero-discordant couples to established a prospective cohort between January 2010 and June 2015 from areas with severe HIV epidemic in Xinjiang. Follow up once every 3 months, serological tests and risk behavior surveys every 6 months. Variables were screened by LASSO regression and a Cox proportional hazards model was established.
Results: A total of 1162 negative partners of sero-discordant couples were recruited. The seroconversion occurred in 42 negative partners during follow-up period, with a seroconversion rate of 2/100 (95% CI = 1.21-2.27), and the median time for seroconversion was 0.92 years. The Cox model showed that frequency of sexual behavior for nearly six months, consistent condom use, knowledge of the transmission route for HIV, a history of sexually transmitted diseases, recent CD4 + T lymphocyte count were all significant contributing factors to the seroconversion in negative partner of HIV sero-discordant couples. In addition, the Cox model was used to evaluate the risk factors of seroconversion for HIV negative partners.
Conclusions: The seroconversion rate of HIV negative partners in Xinjiang was lower. The LASSO Cox model may accurately predict the risk of HIV transmission in sero-discordant couples.
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