Sensitivity of Guillain-Barre Syndrome Surveillance in the Brazilian Federal District, using the Capture-Recapture Method

Abstract

Introduction: Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) is an acute immune-mediated polyneuropathy that compromises the peripheral and cranial nerves. It is characterized by rapid-onset paresthesia accompanied by progressive weakness in the lower extremities followed by symmetric ascending paralysis.

Methodology: assessment of sensitivity to detect GBS between March 2017 and May 2019 in a public referral hospital, using the capture-recapture method based on the Chapman estimator and comparing three GBS data sources: the hospital-based sentinel surveillance system (VSBH), Human Immunoglobulin Dispensing Records System (RDIH), and Hospital Information System (SIH).

Results: A total of 259 possible cases were identified (captured). Of these, 58 were confirmed and most resided in the Federal District. The VSBH showed the greatest sensitivity in case identification. The temporal distribution of cases showed periods with no cases identified, and more were registered during the rainy season from October to May, when high temperatures also occur.

Conclusions: Increased circulation of arboviruses and gastrointestinal infections during the rainy season may explain the greater concentration of GBS cases. It is important to note that one-third of the cases identified in the different data sources do not converge, demonstrating that no single surveillance system is 100% effective. The severity and possible increase in cases related to GBS demonstrates the need for an improved surveillance system capable of monitoring and following-up cases involving neurological syndromes, regardless of the event preceding infection.