The past, present and future of global malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a disease burden assessment from 1990 to 2030

Di Li; Yujie Shi; Ruyi Wang; Xiaorui Hong; Tianshan Shi; Suling Zhu

doi:10.3855/jidc.20455

The past, present and future of global malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a disease burden assessment from 1990 to 2030

Authors

Di Li Institute of Health Statistics and Intelligent Analysis, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China
Yujie Shi Institute of Health Statistics and Intelligent Analysis, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China
Ruyi Wang Institute of Health Statistics and Intelligent Analysis, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China
Xiaorui Hong Institute of Health Statistics and Intelligent Analysis, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China
Tianshan Shi Institute of Health Statistics and Intelligent Analysis, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China
Suling Zhu Institute of Health Statistics and Intelligent Analysis, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, PR China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3855/jidc.20455

Keywords:

malaria, NTDs, GBD, assessment, prediction

Abstract

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO) plans to control the epidemics of malaria and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) by 2030. The aim of this study was to evaluate the realizability of achieving the WHO targets by assessing the past, present, and future global disease burden of malaria and NTDs.

Methodology: Joinpoint regression, Spearman's correlation, and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were used to estimate the trends of malaria and NTDs from 1990 to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019.

Results: Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cases of malaria and NTDs in 2019, with one-half of the global cases. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in high socio-demographic index (SDI) and World Bank high-income regions showed upward trends from 1990 to 2019. The highest burden of NTDs was dengue in 2019, and the ASIR of dengue showed an obvious upward trend from 1990 to 2019. Children (< 5 years) had the most serious disease burden of malaria and NTDs from 1990 to 2019. The predicted results showed that the age-standardized mortality rate of malaria and NTDs worldwide had a slow upward trend from 2020 to 2030.

Conclusions: This analysis emphasizes that the control of malaria and NTDs in western sub-Saharan Africa should be continuously strengthened and the resurgence of malaria and NTDs in high SDI and World Bank high-income regions needs to be highlighted. Dengue and children (< 5 years) are the primary diseases and populations of concern, respectively, for future prevention efforts.

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Published

2025-12-31

How to Cite

Li D, Shi Y, Wang R, Hong X, Shi T, Zhu S (2025) The past, present and future of global malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a disease burden assessment from 1990 to 2030. J Infect Dev Ctries 19:1878–1889. doi: 10.3855/jidc.20455

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Issue

Vol. 19 No. 12: December 2025

Section

Original Articles

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